US midterms on 3 November: what is at stake, and why Kenya should watch
Americans vote on Tuesday for all 435 House seats, about a third of the Senate and 36 governors. The result decides how much power President Trump has for his last two years, including over trade deals that matter to Kenyan jobs.
On Tuesday, 3 November 2026, Americans vote in the midterm elections, held halfway through a president's four-year term. Donald Trump is not on the ballot, but the result will decide how easily he can pass laws for the rest of his term.
What is being decided
| Body | Seats up | Current balance | What would flip it |
|---|---|---|---|
| House of Representatives | All 435 | Republicans 218, Democrats 214, plus 2 vacancies and 1 independent who votes with Republicans | A net gain of 4 seats for Democrats |
| Senate | About a third of 100 | Republicans 53, Democrats 47 | A net gain of 4 seats for Democrats |
| Governors | 36 of 50 states | Governors run states and influence how future elections are run. | |
Seat figures as reported on 22 October 2026. About ten Senate races are seen as the ones that could decide control.
Why it matters so much
- Laws need both chambers. In the US, a bill must pass both the House and the Senate. If Democrats win either one, they can block or reshape Republican bills, including the budget.
- Oversight. The party that controls a chamber leads its committees, which can investigate the government.
- The mood. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in September put the president's approval at 32%, an all-time low for him in that poll. Midterms often go against the president's party, but results depend on individual races.
- The money. A record US$3.8 billion had been spent on political ads by 12 October, according to the tracking firm AdImpact. If turnout is like 2022, more than 100 million people will vote.
Why Kenya should watch
The US is one of Kenya's most important trading partners, about 9% of Kenya's total external trade. Several things that touch Kenyan jobs depend on the US Congress, not just the president.
- AGOA, the duty-free deal. The African Growth and Opportunity Act lets many Kenyan goods, especially clothing, enter the US without import duty. It lapsed in September 2025 and was renewed in February 2026, but only until 31 December 2026. Kenya exported US$788.6 million worth of goods under AGOA in 2025, and nearly 70,000 workers in Kenya's Export Processing Zones are tied to it.
- A Kenya–US trade deal. Kenyan business groups have asked for a long-term trade agreement, because one-year extensions make it hard for factories to plan and invest.
- Aid, health and security funding. US budgets for health programmes, humanitarian aid and security cooperation in East Africa are voted on by Congress.
When will we know?
Polls close on Tuesday evening US time, which is early Wednesday morning in Kenya. Close races can take days to count, especially where postal ballots arrive late. Wait for official counts rather than early claims on social media.
How to follow it from Kenya
- Follow results from outlets that name their sources, such as the Associated Press, which calls US races based on vote counts.
- Be careful with clips claiming fraud or early wins. Check the date and source before sharing.
- For what it means locally, watch statements from Kenya's Ministry of Trade and the Kenya Association of Manufacturers on AGOA.
We will update this page after the results.
