Milk shortage in Kenya: why packets disappeared from shelves and when prices could fall
Supermarkets have rationed milk and prices have jumped. The government blamed drought; now President Ruto and adviser David Ndii say more Kenyans can afford milk. Here is what the data show and what to expect.
Latest updates to this explainer
- New explainer: Milk shortage in Kenya.
Since September, many Kenyans have found the milk shelf empty, or a sign limiting how many packets they can buy. Prices have risen at every step from farm to shop.
The prices
| Stage | Price |
|---|---|
| Cost to produce a litre (average) | KSh36.20 |
| Farm-gate price paid by some factories | KSh49–60 a litre (up from about KSh42 in June) |
| Collection-point median, September | KSh81.25 a litre (up from KSh72.50 in August) |
| Packaged milk in shops | Median about KSh145 a litre in tracked markets |
Why is there a shortage? Two explanations
1. Less milk reaching factories (the Agriculture ministry)
- Agriculture CS Mutahi Kagwe said milk delivered to processors fell about 5.8%, from 84.4 million litres in June to 81.3 million in July, mainly because of dry weather and costly feed.
- Farmers are selling to brokers who pay more than factories, so less milk is packaged.
- Panic buying emptied shelves faster. Foot-and-mouth disease has been ruled out as the main cause.
2. More people buying milk (President Ruto and David Ndii)
- At an economic forum on 3 November, presidential adviser David Ndii said production has actually risen, to about 5.6 billion litres a year, with processors' intake up about a third.
- On 4 November, President Ruto backed him, saying production rose from about 4.6 to 5.5 billion litres and that demand is outpacing supply because more people have jobs, including about 1.1 million on affordable housing sites, where workers are given milk.
Our read: both can be true. Total production can rise over a year while deliveries to factories dip in a dry season, and demand can rise at the same time. Most milk in Kenya (80–85%) is sold informally, outside factories, which makes the picture hard to measure.
When will it ease?
The government expects the short rains to restore pasture. Kagwe has even warned of a possible glut within months and plans more milk-powder processing for export. Watch the short rains forecast.
Tips for households
- Buy only what you need; stockpiling makes shortages worse.
- Raw milk must be boiled before drinking.
- Long-life (UHT) milk and powder can fill gaps.
Related: inflation and the cost of living.
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Watch on YouTubeSources
- From cow to supermarket shelf: the supply squeeze behind Kenya's rising milk prices, Pulse (15 Oct 2026)
- CS Kagwe explains prolonged milk shortage, Pulse (6 Oct 2026)
- Who profits from Kenya's milk shortage as consumers pay more? Business Today (19 Oct 2026)
- Ruto links supermarket milk shortages to rising employment, Nairobi Wire (5 Nov 2026)
